Abstract
Introduction
Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a common endocrine disorder in women of reproductive age, with reproductive, metabolic, and long-term health consequences. Data on PCOS burden in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) remain limited and inconsistent. This study evaluated temporal trends, determinants, and future projections of PCOS across the GCC.Methods
We estimated PCOS prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years in the six GCC countries from 1990 to 2023 using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 data. Trends were assessed using annual percentage change and joinpoint regression, and case-number changes were decomposed into population growth, ageing, and epidemiological change. Associations with the Socio-demographic Index and socioeconomic inequality were assessed, alongside ecological correlations with metabolic risk indicators, and future trends to 2050 were projected using ARIMA/ETS models validated by backtesting.Results
The age-standardized prevalence of PCOS in 2023 ranged from 2377 per 100,000 women in Oman to 2679 in Kuwait, exceeding regional and global benchmarks; affected women rose from 173,203 in 1990 to 621,812 in 2023. All GCC countries showed increasing trends, with burden highest among women aged 20-24 years. Population growth accounted for 71% of the case-number rise, rising age-specific rates for 26%, and age structure for 3%. Prevalence and DALY rates were positively associated with SDI (r = 0.69-0.70); socioeconomic inequality narrowed substantially (RCI 0.037 to 0.003), and obesity exposure was the strongest ecological correlate of prevalence (r = 0.95-0.92), with increases projected through 2050.Conclusion
PCOS is an emerging, increasingly shared public health problem across the GCC, with a burden exceeding international benchmarks, driven predominantly by population growth and associated with rising obesity; forecasting models suggest continued increases in the coming decades. Increased surveillance, standardized early diagnosis, and integrated reproductive-metabolic health strategies are needed across the region.