Abstract
Climate change has already affected and will continue to affect physical and biological systems in many parts of the world. For example, annual snow cover extent in the northern hemisphere has decreased by about 10% since 1966, and in Sweden, the last decade was wetter and warmer than the preceding 30-year period. These changes will affect many aspects of utilisation patterns that are dependent on the physical environment, such as alpine winter tourism. In this paper, we discuss the future development of the downhill skiing industry in Sweden. We first review trends in alpine winter tourism in relation to climate change together with regional projections of climate change. Secondly, we examine trends in climate parameters relevant to alpine winter tourism in Sweden during the last 30 years. Thirdly, we take these parameters, together with regional projections of climate change, and predict effects on the number of skiing days in order to estimate the monetary loss for the skiing industry in Sweden. The analyses show predicted losses that are larger than current ski-ticket sales. Adaptation strategies such as the development of year-round tourist activities should be developed as soon as possible.