Abstract
This article analyzes the evolution of table wine consumption in Spanish
households during the period 1987-2017, with the aim of characterizing its
temporal dynamics and exploring its economic determinants. To this end,
univariate SARIMA models and multivariate econometric models incorporating
variables such as price and consumption of other beverages are used,
applying the Box-Jenkins methodology and Granger causality tests. The
results indicate a clear downward trend in consumption, limited seasonality,
and a high predictive capacity of the adjusted model. Likewise, significant
relationships with the price and consumption of beer and quality wine are
detected, and patterns of substitution and complementarity are suggested.
The statistical validity of the models is confirmed by residual analysis and
ex ante predictions. These findings provide useful tools for the formulation
of public policies and commercial strategies in the wine sector.