Abstract
The objective of this article is to analyze the response of regional
economic growth in the municipality of Pitalito, Huila, to shocks in
sectoral, institutional, and geographic variables. To achieve this purpose,
a quantitative methodology based on the analysis of quarterly time series
data for the period 2011–2022 is employed, using a Vector Autoregression
(VAR) model. The dynamics among the variables are examined through the
estimation of impulse response functions derived from one standard deviation
shocks, whose statistical significance is assessed using 95% confidence
intervals obtained through bootstrapping. The results show that although the
tertiary sector is dominant in the municipality’s productive structure,
shocks associated with this sector have null or statistically insignificant
effects on Municipal Value Added (MVA). In contrast, shocks in the primary
sector and in institutional capacity generate positive and statistically
significant effects in the long run, while population growth exerts negative
pressures in the short run. Overall, the evidence suggests that economic
growth in Pitalito is closely linked to institutional strengthening and
investment in the productivity of the primary sector.