Abstract
Urban agriculture is emerging as a response to challenges facing European food systems, though its potential remains underexplored. This article explores how weak signals, early indicators of future possibilities, appear in urban agriculture initiatives in the Nordic-Baltic region and may signal sustainability transitions. Using a multi-level perspective on socio-technical change and a framework for weak-signal detection, we analyze six cases, including community gardens, educational programs, municipal strategies, and an aquaponics campus. An AI-assisted review situates these initiatives within a broader experimentation landscape. We identify four dimensions of weak signals: (1) novel business models, (2) spatial and institutional adaptations, (3) socio-economic integration, and (4) post-pandemic resilience. These dimensions suggest urban agriculture is becoming a diverse niche that could influence food policy and crisis preparedness amid various pressures. However, these signals are inconsistent, relying on volunteer labor and vulnerable to policy changes. This study demonstrates that mapping weak signals within a relational, multi-level framework can be supported by a cautious, AI-assisted review process. This adds complexity and depth to existing methodological frameworks.