Influence of mimicry on extinction risk in Aculeata: a theoretical approach

Positive ecological interactions can play a role in community structure and species co-existence. A well-documented case of mutualistic interaction is Mullerian mimicry, the convergence of colour pattern in defended species living in sympatry. By reducing predation pressure, Mullerian mimicry may limit local extinction risks of defended species, but this positive effect can be weakened by undefended mimics (Batesian mimicry). While mimicry was well-studied in neotropical butterflies, it remains surprisingly poorly studied in wasps and bees (Hymenoptera: Aculeata). However, only females are defended in Aculeata and this female-limited defence may modulate the effect of Mullerian mimicry on extinction risks. Here, we focus on the effect of Mullerian mimicry on extinction risk in Aculeata, using a population dynamics model for two species. We show that Mullerian mimicry has a positive effect on species co-existence, but this effect depends on the sex-ratio. We found that the probability of extinction increases as the proportion of undefended males increases in the population, however co-existence still occurs if females are sufficiently abundant or noxious. Furthermore, we detected a destabilising effect of dual sex-limited mimicry (when each sex resembles a different model) on species co-existence. In a context of massive population decline caused by anthropic activities, our findings highlight the potential importance of Mullerian mimicry as an overlooked mechanism linked to extinction risk in wasp and bee species.