Abstract
Climate change is already a reality, evidenced by the continuous rise in air and ocean temperatures and the intensification of extreme events. In this context, hydrological and climatological tools are essential to understand and analyze climate and water dynamics, supporting public policies and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aimed at mitigating environmental impacts. This study evaluates the water balance of the Brígida, Ipanema, and Sirinhaém river basins for the period 1961–2020, using the SUPer model in association with the variability of the Southwestern Atlantic Warm Pool (SAWP). Temperature anomalies and their influence on precipitation were identified through SAWP variability and the Rainfall Anomaly Index (IAC), while the water balance was assessed for wet and dry periods. Results of evapotranspiration and streamflow simulated by SUPer indicate a strong relationship between SAWP variability and the occurrence of critical events in the basins, affecting water availability. The findings demonstrate that SAWP modulates precipitation, evapotranspiration, and streamflow in Pernambuco, providing valuable insights for integrated water resource management.