Abstract
Changes in climatic patterns have intensified extreme events, such as prolonged droughts and irregular rainfall, generating negative impacts on regions with high socio-environmental vulnerability, such as the northeastern Brazilian semi-arid region. In this context, this study aimed to analyze climate variability and land use and land cover changes in the municipality of Afogados da Ingazeira, in the semi-arid region of Pernambuco. Monthly rainfall data from 1960 to 2024 were obtained from the Pernambuco Water and Climate Agency (APAC) to assess interannual rainfall variability and to identify climatic extremes (wet and dry years). Based on the identification of extreme years, MapBiomas data from 1993 to 2024 were used to classify land use and land cover, considering the following classes: forest, herbaceous and shrub vegetation, pasture, agriculture, urban area, and water bodies. The results reveal pronounced interannual rainfall irregularity, marked by extremely dry years, such as 1998—associated with one of the most intense El Niño events on record—and exceptionally wet years, such as 1985. From the 2000s onward, an alternation between wet periods and severe droughts was observed, highlighting the influence of global phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña. Regarding land use and land cover, native vegetation remained predominant but exhibited oscillations driven by anthropogenic and climatic pressures. Water bodies proved to be highly sensitive to rainfall variability, while urban areas expanded gradually. Pasture and agricultural areas varied according to water availability, reinforcing their direct dependence on the rainfall regime. It is therefore concluded that rainfall irregularity strongly influences the environmental and socioeconomic dynamics of the municipality, underscoring the need for public policies focused on water resource management, infrastructure, low-impact agricultural practices, and strategies that support permanence in semi-arid regions.