Abstract
As global climate change intensifies, extreme weather such as typhoons poses severe challenges to power system security, and traditional regulation methods are difficult to cope with short-term load fluctuations. As a mobile energy storage carrier, the charging and swapping resource cluster of electric vehicles provides a new path for the active regulation of the power grid through space-time controllability. The research focuses on typhoon-prone areas and constructs a cluster discharge characteristic analysis framework that considers battery loss constraints and economic requirements. It also proposes a capacity confidence assessment method based on the Copula spatio-temporal correlation model and improved time-sequence simulation technology. Experiments show that the power response error of cluster nodes is less than 5% at a 0.3-second extreme weather triggering moment, verifying that the model can track sudden power changes with more than 95% accuracy and reduce cluster power fluctuation by 60%. There are significant differences in adjustable capacity under various weather conditions: high temperatures, heavy rain, and blizzard conditions decrease the capacity by 18.3%, 40.0%, and 29.2%, respectively, compared to sunny days. In the active support strategy, the response delay of direct load control during heavy rain is 45 seconds, while the electricity price guidance is delayed by 150 seconds in high temperatures. When the cluster participates in frequency modulation, the regulation accuracy of ± 1 MW in a rainstorm scenario is 78%, which is 15.2% lower than that on sunny days. Frequency support experiments show that in extreme weather, clusters can increase the frequency drop amplitude by an average of 0.13 Hz and shorten the recovery time to 45-50 seconds. Through 24-hour multi-energy complementary dispatching, power abandonment is reduced by 17%, and energy storage charging and discharging efficiency is increased by 22%, which verifies the effectiveness of charging and swapping clusters in improving power grid resilience.