Abstract
This article provides a rationale for a scenario-based approach to the stabilization and postwar recovery of small-scale agricultural enterprises in Ukraine’s agricultural sector, an issue that has become critically important due to the unprecedented destructive consequences of full-scale aggression. The aim of the study is to provide a theoretical and methodological justification for and to develop an adaptive strategic model (roadmap) for supporting small-scale agricultural enterprises, which envisages a phased transition from security stabilization to structural modernization and European integration. The methodological framework consists of monographic analysis, the expert assessment method, the statistical-economic method, and scenario forecasting tools, which allow for accounting for the multidimensional uncertainty of the wartime and postwar periods. The results show that humanitarian demining of agricultural land has the highest integrated priority index (4.4 out of 5), as it determines the very possibility of economic activity, while grant support for working capital and preferential lending rank second. The developed three-level model structures the measures by stag- es: physical restoration of access to land, restoration of production through grant programs, and structural modernization with integration into value-added chains. Scenario analysis shows that the optimistic scenario (an 8–10% annual increase in the number of farms) requires accelerating the pace of demining to over 65,000 hectares per year, whereas the actual figure for 2025 was only 12,000–14,000 hectares, creating a significant gap between need and capacity. The findings confirm that the pace of demining and the volume of grant fund- ing are controllable variables, and influencing them can shift the actual trajectory toward positive change. The practical value of this article lies in the development of a toolkit for adaptive agricultural policy manage- ment under conditions of limited financial resources, which enables government authorities and international donors to rationally prioritize support for small agricultural enterprises, taking into account multifactorial uncertainty and critical dependence on security conditions.