Abstract
Introduction
The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region is a key area for examining how sports industry development may interact with ecological environmental protection and quality-oriented economic development within regional green transformation. Existing studies have mainly focused on bilateral or static relationships, while the coordinated and dynamic interactions among these three systems remain insufficiently examined.
Methods
Using panel data from Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei from 2012 to 2020, this study combines a coupling coordination degree (CCD) model with a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model. The CCD model evaluates the coordination level and regional differences among the three subsystems, while the PVAR model examines dynamic interactions, lagged effects, Granger predictive relationships, impulse responses, and forecast error variance decomposition.
Results
The average coupling coordination degree increased from 0.5423 in 2012 to 0.5958 in 2020, indicating improved coordination, although the overall level remained close to the threshold of initial coordination. Regional heterogeneity was evident: Hebei showed the strongest improvement, Beijing maintained a relatively stable coordination path, and Tianjin remained comparatively weak. The PVAR results suggest that quality-oriented economic development significantly supported sports industry development, while sports industry development also showed a positive association with subsequent economic development. The Granger tests further indicate that sports industry development and ecological environmental protection jointly helped predict high-quality economic development within the model. Forecast error variance decomposition shows that sports industry shocks accounted for an increasing share of fluctuations in both economic development and ecological environmental protection over longer horizons.
Discussion
The findings suggest that the sports industry may serve as a potential bridging sector in regional sustainable development, but its effects are conditional rather than automatic. Its contribution depends on regional policy coordination, industrial structure, ecological governance capacity, and the long-term conversion of sports-related resources into sustainable economic and environmental outcomes.