Decoding soil erosion dynamics on the qinghai-xizang plateau: an XGBoost-SHAP approach for spatiotemporal analysis and impact assessment

Introduction Soil erosion (SE) is one of the major constraints to sustainable social and ecological development. The spatiotemporal dynamics and the driving factors of SE are critical to improve regional ecosystem services and guarantee ecological and food security. This study is centered on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP), the core region of the “Third Pole of the World.” Methods By using the Sen-Mann-Kendall trend analysis method, the center of gravity shift model and XGBoost-SHAP analysis, we carried out a systematic study of the spatiotemporal pattern and driving mechanisms of SE in the plateau from 2000 to 2020. Results The results show obvious spatial heterogeneity of SE intensity, in which the area of low-, medium- and high-erosion areas is 81.8%, 16.9% and 1.3% of the total area, respectively. Low and medium erosional zones are spatially continuous. The center of gravity of SE moved along a NE-SW-NW-SE direction with a total distance of 207.85 km and an average annual velocity of 9.89 km. Generally speaking, the SE level of most areas in the plateau was relatively stable, and there was only a slight regional variation. Research demonstrates that natural factors, such as slope and elevation, predominantly affect soil erosion dynamics on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Conversely, the influence of human activities and socio-economic variables, including GDP, is relatively limited. Conclusion This study offers a scientific foundation for decision-making regarding the prevention and management of soil erosion on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and can serve as a theoretical reference for the targeted protection and sustainable development of the plateau in the future.