Abstract
Background
Oral selective estrogen receptor degraders (SERDs) have become a key therapeutic option for hormone receptor-positive, HER2−negative advanced breast cancer. The recent presentation of lidERA—the first positive adjuvant Phase III trial of any oral SERD—necessitates a comprehensive evidence synthesis spanning both early and advanced disease settings, beyond the scope of existing meta-analyses confined to metastatic disease.
Methods
This review was prospectively registered (PROSPERO CRD420261358420). We searched PubMed, Cochrane CENTRAL, and conference abstract archives (SABCS, ESMO, ASCO; 2020–2026) for Phase II/III randomized controlled trials comparing oral SERDs (giredestrant, imlunestrant, elacestrant, camizestrant, vepdegestrant, amcenestrant) with standard endocrine therapy in ER-positive, HER2−negative breast cancer. Progression-free survival hazard ratios in the metastatic setting were pooled using random-effects models. Prespecified sensitivity analyses included Bayesian re-analysis.
Results
Ten randomized controlled trials met inclusion criteria (one adjuvant, n = 4,170; nine metastatic). Giredestrant significantly improved invasive disease-free survival in the adjuvant lidERA trial (HR 0.70; 95% CI 0.57–0.87;
P
= 0.0014). In the metastatic setting, pooled analysis of six oral degrader monotherapy trials (n = 2,502) showed a progression-free survival benefit (HR 0.815; 95% CI 0.718–0.924;
P
= 0.0014) with moderate heterogeneity (
I
² = 35.2%). The
ESR1
-mutated subgroup revealed a particularly robust and consistent effect (HR 0.617; 95% CI 0.527–0.723;
P
I
² = 0%). These findings were unchanged across all sensitivity analyses: restriction to Phase III trials only (HR 0.811;
I
² = 5.8%), exclusion of the PROTAC agent (HR 0.807), leave-one-out iteration (range 0.790–0.843), and Bayesian re-analysis (posterior median HR 0.814; 95% credible interval 0.678–0.969). Egger’s test did not detect significant funnel plot asymmetry (
P
= 0.40), though power was limited (k = 6).
Conclusions
Oral SERDs confer a consistent progression-free survival benefit in advanced breast cancer, with the most robust and consistent effect in
ESR1
-mutated tumors. Giredestrant is the first oral SERD to achieve significantly improved invasive disease-free survival in the adjuvant setting, marking a potential new standard of care. This evidence synthesis across the full breast cancer continuum offers a framework for clinical decision-making as oral SERDs expand from advanced to early-stage disease.
Systematic Review Registration
https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php
, identifier CRD420261358420.