Heterogeneous Financial Market Responses to Geopolitical Attacks on Energy Infrastructure: When Pipelines and Maritime Networks Matter More

Despite extensive research on geopolitical risk and financial markets, limited evidence exists on whether and how different types of attacks on energy facilities and related infrastructure are reflected in the immediate responses of financial markets, and whether the continued diversification of these attacks influences the pattern and behavior of financial market responses. This study addresses this gap by examining the differential impact of five categories of attacks—infrastructure, ports and vessels, cyberattacks, pipelines, and security-related incidents—on U.S. financial markets. A systematic review identified attacks between 2015 and 2025, comprising 56 events and 168 observations across the three-day event window, and OLS and panel regressions with the daily closing prices of four major U.S. stock indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ, NYSE, and Dow Jones) were employed to examine abnormal returns. Methodologically, the study contributes by disaggregating attacks into distinct categories, revealing that treating them as homogeneous shocks obscures meaningful differences in market sensitivity. Pipeline and maritime disruptions generate the most consistent negative effects, while production infrastructure attacks yield limited reactions, as spare capacity and reserves can offset localized damage. Transportation disruptions are harder to compensate due to restoration time and insurer reluctance to operate in high risk zones. While attacks trigger negative responses, rapid information dissemination helps investors reassess risks and contain spillovers. These insights can assist policymakers and investors in adopting more measured decisions that limit unnecessary contagion while emphasizing transportation security in risk management.