A Century of Population Dynamics in Arid Xinjiang, China: County-Level Change, Demographic Structure, and Spatial Patterns, 1909–2020

Reconstructing long-term population dynamics contributes to understanding the processes underlying the formation of present-day population patterns and provides a historical perspective for addressing future demographic challenges. This study reconstructs county-level population changes in Xinjiang, China, from 1909 to 2020 by integrating historical population records with modern census data and applying historical demographic methods and GIS-based spatial analysis. The results show that Xinjiang’s population increased nearly twelvefold over the past century, with two major decline periods in the 1930s and early 1960s. Significant demographic changes included declining household size, a more balanced sex ratio, and limited population aging. Spatially, northern Xinjiang exhibits a concentrated population pattern closely associated with urbanization, transportation infrastructure and policy incentives, while southern Xinjiang’s population is more dispersed following a linear distribution along oases. This study provides a long-term perspective on population evolution in arid regions and highlights the value of incorporating historical demographic dynamics into land and water resource management.