Abstract
International migration is often considered an important factor in housing market dynamics, yet its relationship with residential property prices remains uncertain, particularly in developing economies. This study examined whether changes in international migration are associated with changes in residential property prices in South Africa, both in the short term and over a longer period. Annual data covering 1976–2022 were analysed using an unrestricted error-correction model and the Pesaran, Shin and Smith bounds-testing approach. The results show that changes in the number of international migrants were not significantly associated with changes in residential property prices in the short term. The analysis also found no evidence of a lasting relationship between international migration and residential property prices over the longer term. In other words, the data do not provide sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that changes in international migration were linked to changes in South African residential property prices during the study period. In contrast, the results show that changes in residential property prices tended to persist over time, with price changes in one year being positively associated with changes in the following year. These findings suggest that migration should not be assumed to be an important explanation for national housing-price movements without supporting empirical evidence. They also highlight the importance of examining short-term and long-term relationships separately when studying migration and housing-market dynamics.