Camel Production Sustainability in Saudi Arabia: Investigating the Dynamic Effect of Temperature Variability and Economic Growth Shocks

This study explores the robust connections between camel production, economic growth, and climatic conditions in Saudi Arabia using annual time-series data. The Johansen cointegration test was applied to assess long-run associations and validate the VAR framework, along with VAR diagnostic tests involving impulse response functions (IRFs), forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD), and forecast evaluation, which were used to analyze the predictive performance of the variables. The results show no evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the studied variables. The VAR results indicate significant short-run dynamic interactions among temperature, camel production, and economic growth. Temperature changes exhibit strong self-adjustment and are also affected by camel meat production. Raw camel milk production shows a significant dynamic response to past economic growth, while camel meat production and economic growth exhibit relatively limited short-run feedback within the VAR model. The diagnostic results indicate that camel production is principally motivated by their own historical shocks. Forecast evaluation confirms the model’s strong predictive accuracy for camel production and economic variables. The findings highlight the importance of sustainable camel management and climate-resilient production strategies. These will sustain food systems and support the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), notably SDG, 2SDG 12, and SDG 13.