Fisheries-based Determinants of Fisherfolks’ and their Influence on Access to Impact-based Weather Forecasting in Suba-North sub-County, Homabay County, Kenya

Lake Victoria, the world’s largest freshwater fishery, supports the livelihoods of 4 to 5.6 million economically vulnerable people, with many living on less than $1.25 a day. However, the Lake also witnesses a staggering annual drowning toll of 1,500 to 5,000 fatalities, with two-thirds attributed to storms. Recognising the need for an effective advisory and warning system known as impact-based forecasting (IBF), the HIGHWAY-WISER Project commenced in 2017, focusing on 10 East African beaches, including those in Kenya. Despite its significance, this donor-funded initiative remains relatively unknown and under-researched. This study investigates how fisheries-based factors affect access to IBF in the Lake Victoria region. Data collection involves two key stakeholder groups: policymakers and implementers from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) and the fisherfolk community, segmented across six beaches. A combination of proportional stratified and simple random sampling yields a sample size of 422 fisherfolk who complete semi-closed questionnaires. Additionally, 30 policymakers and beach management unit (BMU) members are purposively selected as key informants and interviewed. The study reveals that fisheries-based determinants significantly influence IBF access among fisherfolk. These determinants encompass BMU politics and leadership, social networks, the adoption of flags and noticeboards, exposure to storms, boat size, energy sources for propulsion, fisherfolk experience, and timing of fishing activities. To enhance awareness and accessibility, the study recommends greater involvement of community-based organisations and increased training on IBF for fisheries decision-making contexts. This research underscores the importance of further exploration into fisheries-based factors as pivotal determinants of IBF access. It illuminates how these understudied variables factor into the decision-making processes of fisherfolk regarding whether to embark on fishing expeditions, irrespective of the presence or absence of IBF at their respective beaches. Such insights can inform more effective strategies for improving IBF access within this vital socioeconomic context