Climate Variability in Narok County of Kenya: A Temporal Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall

This study examines the temporal trends and magnitude of variability in temperature and rainfall in Narok County, Kenya. The study used in situ observation data from the Narok Meteorological Station. Non-parametric Mann-Kendal (z) and Sen Slope (Q) tests were employed on monthly, seasonal, and annual temperature and rainfall data in evaluating the trend and magnitude of change. Coefficient of Variation was calculated to assess the degrees to which seasons and annual climate parameters had been varying. Change point detection using Sequential Mann-Kendal test was performed to establish change points and shifts in the data series. Both minimum and maximum temperatures were lowly variable in all seasons. Monthly mean temperatures were notably variable, contributing to a positive significant 0.50C rise in the long-term average. Seasonal variation in rainfall was highest in October-November-December season (C.V = 69.5%) and January – February (C.V = 60.1%), while moderate in June – July – August – September (46.1%) and March – April – May (35.6%). Monthly rainfalls were equally highly variable but contributed a minimal, non-significant (2%) drop in the long-term mean. A significant rising trend in minimum temperature has been realized at the rate of 0.070C annually.  The maximum temperature portrayed lacks trend and consistency. Rainfall trends were decreasing but non-significant. Seasonal rates of precipitation changes were equally varied and non-significant (p>0.05) across the four seasons. Minimum temperatures mostly recorded higher than the 50-year average, except for the period 1990 to 1993, realizing a significant shift in 2006. Maximum temperature exhibited numerous overlaps, which signifies a lack of a significant trend. A shift in the rains was noticeable in 1964, followed by a largely below normal average for the years that followed. Changes in climate patterns suggest that traditional livelihood and conservation practices may no longer be reliable; therefore, an urgent adaptation-oriented policies are needed to build resilience.