Abstract
Purpose: This study develops an integrated policy–technology–airport–strategy framework to examine aviation decarbonization pathways under uncertainty. Specifically, it investigates how climate policy instruments, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) deployment, airport infrastructure readiness, and heterogeneous airline strategic responses jointly influence long-term emissions reduction trajectories. The study seeks to address important gaps in the aviation sustainability literature by explicitly incorporating airport management, airline heterogeneity, and probabilistic transition dynamics within a unified analytical framework.Design/methodology: The study adopts a scenario-based systems modelling approach that integrates institutional theory, socio-technical transition theory, and strategic firm behavior. A transparent Monte Carlo simulation framework is developed and calibrated using publicly available aviation, energy, and climate-policy data. Three transition scenarios—conservative, moderate, and accelerated—are evaluated over the 2025–2050 period using 10,000 simulation iterations per scenario. The model explicitly incorporates stochastic demand growth, SAF cost trajectories, airport infrastructure readiness, differentiated airline business models, and multiple policy instruments, including carbon pricing, SAF mandates, production subsidies, and infrastructure support.Findings: The results indicate that aviation decarbonization exhibits strongly non-linear and threshold-dependent dynamics. Deep emissions reductions do not arise from individual policy instruments alone but require coordinated interactions among policy intensity, SAF production expansion, airport infrastructure readiness, and airline strategic adaptation. SAF deployment emerges as the dominant medium-term decarbonization pathway, although its effectiveness remains highly sensitive to production costs, infrastructure constraints, and airline procurement behavior. The analysis further demonstrates that network carriers adapt more rapidly than low-cost and regional airlines, while major hub airports become critical nodes for SAF deployment. Airport infrastructure readiness is identified as a significant enabling factor, with insufficient infrastructure substantially slowing transition pathways even under strong policy conditions.Research limitations/implications: The simulation represents a stylized systems-transition model rather than a fully disaggregated airline-network optimization model. Airport readiness is operationalized using an aggregate infrastructure index, and non-CO₂ climate effects are not explicitly modelled. Nevertheless, the framework provides a transparent and replicable foundation for future research integrating agent-based modelling, airport-specific infrastructure analysis, endogenous SAF supply-chain dynamics, and regional aviation transition pathways.Practical implications: The findings suggest that aviation decarbonization strategies should extend beyond carbon pricing to include coordinated portfolios of SAF mandates, production incentives, airport infrastructure investment, and differentiated transition support for diverse airline business models. Airlines should integrate long-term SAF procurement, fleet modernization, and strategic airport partnerships into transition planning, while airports should strengthen fuel logistics, blending infrastructure, and supplier coordination to facilitate large-scale SAF deployment.Social implications: Accelerating aviation decarbonization can contribute to global climate mitigation while supporting the long-term sustainability of international air transport. However, the findings also highlight the need for equitable transition policies to avoid disproportionate burdens on regional airports, smaller airlines, and underserved communities. Coordinated investment in airport infrastructure and sustainable fuel supply chains can help ensure that the benefits of aviation decarbonization are more broadly distributed across regions and stakeholders.Originality/value: This study advances the aviation sustainability literature by developing an integrated policy–technology–airport–strategy framework that explicitly models airport infrastructure readiness and airline heterogeneity within a probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation. Unlike previous studies that examine policy instruments, SAF deployment, or airline responses separately, the proposed framework captures their interdependencies and identifies threshold-dependent transition dynamics under uncertainty. The study contributes a transparent, replicable modelling approach that strengthens the theoretical and practical understanding of aviation decarbonization and offers actionable insights for airline managers, airport operators, and policymakers.