Abstract
Groundwater, as a vital resource, is facing a crisis in Probolinggo Regency due to rapid industrialization and land conversion, both of which threaten groundwater sustainability performance. This study aims to quantitatively identify the dominant factors among six aspects of sustainable groundwater resource management and to quantify their causal influence, both positive and negative, on the groundwater sustainability performance. A quantitative approach with an explanatory survey design was used, and analysis was conducted through Partial Least Squares-Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) involving data from key stakeholders. The results show that the model possesses very high predictive power (R² = 0.925), revealing two contrasting dominant factors. Utilization (X6) has the strongest and statistically significant positive effect (β = 0.57; p = 0.004), driven by technological innovation, while Implementation (X2) exhibits a significant negative effect (β = −0.54; p = 0.049). This negative coefficient provides empirical confirmation of a critical “policy-practice gap,” suggesting that weaknesses in human resource capacity and inconsistent budgetary support during the execution phase significantly hinder overall sustainability performance. Consequently, this study concludes that the greatest challenge to achieving sustainable groundwater management lies in policy execution failure rather than in the planning stages. The policy implications call upon the local government to prioritize investment in technological innovation for utilization (X6) and to immediately undertake structural reforms and budget auditing within the implementation phase (X2) to bridge the gap between policy intent and actual sustainability outcomes.