Abstract
Mangrove ecosystems along northern Central Java are experiencing rapid decline due to ecological pressures, land-use changes, and limited institutional support. This study explores how community perceptions and participation influence mangrove degradation across Brebes, Pemalang, and Demak. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining a structured household survey (n = 150) with focus group discussions to contextualize quantitative results. Confirmatory Factor Analysis validated measurement accuracy, and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) with multi-group analysis (MG-SEM) was used to assess causal relationships and spatial variation. In the combined model, perception had a strong positive impact on participation (β = 0.58, p < 0.001) and a direct negative effect on degradation (β = –0.21, p = 0.010). Participation further reduced degradation (β = –0.32, p < 0.001) and partially mediated the perception–degradation link (β_indirect = –0.19, p < 0.001). The model accounted for 34% of the variance in participation and 26% in degradation (R² = 0.34, 0.26) and demonstrated good fit indices (χ²/df = 1.87, CFI = 0.93, TLI = 0.91, RMSEA = 0.056, SRMR = 0.045). MG-SEM revealed context-specific dynamics: an effective perception–participation–degradation pathway in Brebes, a “Pemalang Paradox,” where high participation coexists with significant degradation under intense anthropogenic pressure, and diminished behavioral effects in Demak under extreme ecological stress. These insights emphasize perception and participation as crucial yet bounded factors in mangrove resilience, highlighting the importance of spatially tailored management strategies.