Staff Predicting in Healthcare System

In recent years, specific measures have been implemented in the Republic of Uzbekistan to attract medical personnel to work in medical and preventive institutions. However, due to the existing differences in the socio-economic development of the regions, the implemented measures for the employment of graduates differ in their composition and focus, there is often no priority and systematicity of measures, which in turn reduces the effectiveness of solving the problems of attracting and retaining medical personnel in practical health care. Analysis of literature data on predicting future personnel fluctuations, as well as the results of a questionnaire survey of 139 leaders of the RMO and chief doctors of hospitals (employers) on the quality of education of TashPMI graduates, conducted in the regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2019. Today's university graduate chooses narrow specialties for which there is an overabundance of these specialties in all regions, such areas as otorhinolaryngology, neurology, pediatric neurology, ophthalmology, traumatology and radiology. According to our preliminary estimates, this approach to choosing a future specialty without the presence of a carefully thought-out strategy for professional orientation of medical students can lead to a sharp crisis in the personnel policy of healthcare, namely, in this case, to an overabundance of specialties "popular" among students. The lack of a unified and differentiated approach to support and promote the employment of young medical personnel, which is able to form a competitive offer for specialists employed in rural areas, makes it difficult in the near future to solve the problem of eliminating the uneven distribution of medical personnel.