Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the major geopolitical and geoeconomic changes shaping today’s world and to identify the trends that will determine global political and economic transformations over the coming decade.
Due to the scale, complexity, and hypothetical nature of the issue, the paper will be limited to a general discussion of the subject and an outline of the main trends of future development.
In reality, the geopolitics of the 21st century began in the 2020s. The previous two decades represented the automatic and gradually diminishing continuation of the world order established after the end of the Cold War, namely the further development of the key characteristics of the final decade of the 20th century: the political, military, and economic hegemony of the United States; Europe’s gradual movement toward integration; the rapid growth of China’s economy; and the expansion of the liberal global trading system.
The global events of the last five years have transformed the current political reality of the world:
1. the Russia–Ukraine war;
2. the transformation of China’s economic potential into a powerful military and political resource;
3. the change in the United States’ approach toward NATO member states.
Alongside geopolitical transformations, significant geoeconomic changes are also taking place. These processes are closely interconnected and strongly influence one another.
The period under review has demonstrated that ongoing geoeconomic transformations in the world are driven by three major trends:
(1) China’s expanding economic presence, which compels developed countries to partially shift from a liberal global trade policy toward economic protectionism;
(2) the objective decline in the relative importance of the United States in the global economy, marking the end of its century-long economic hegemony, while still maintaining its position as a leader or at least as primus inter pares;
(3) technological transformations and the advancement of artificial intelligence, which are expected to fundamentally reshape economic relations at both the macro and micro levels.
Those who achieve success in this domain will, figuratively speaking, trigger the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Just as the First Industrial Revolution gave rise to 19th-century Britain as the leading global power, and the Second and Third Industrial Revolutions established the United States as the dominant force of the 20th century, leadership in this new technological era will largely determine the trajectory of global economic development in the 21st century.