Foreign Direct Investment under Geopolitical Fragmentation: Determinants, Constraints, and Selectivity

Economic fundamentals, including market size, production costs, and institutional quality, often determine foreign direct investment. However, an analysis of the turbulent 2020–2025 period suggests that these determinants now operate within a progressively narrower and more constrained set of viable global locations. The unstable global geopolitical landscape, characterized by pandemic aftershocks, strategic trade decoupling, and macroeconomic volatility, has caused several geographic locations to be systematically ruled out before standard economic considerations are even applied by multinational enterprises. Drawing on recent global and regional evidence, this paper shows that foreign direct investment has not declined, but has become more selective and increasingly concentrated across regions and sectors. Investment decisions are influenced first and foremost by conditions of feasibility, including policy predictability, political alignment, infrastructure readiness, and access to long-term finance.