Abstract
The article is devoted to predicting the stability of a small river bank protection structure during the spring high-water period, using the example of the bank protection complex in the town of Poshekhonye, Yaroslavl Region, which has been in operation since 1957. During its operation, degradation of reinforced concrete slabs and foundation erosion have been observed, reducing the bearing capacity of the structure and creating a risk of emergencies. To assess stability, the authors apply the method of mathematical experimental design (full factorial design of the second order 3³), which allows constructing regression models and evaluating the combined effect of three key factors: slope steepness, water level rise, and the angle of internal friction of the soil. The response functions selected are the safety factor and the maximum slope displacement. Polynomial models of the second order are obtained, the significance of the factors is assessed, and response surfaces are plotted. It has been established that slope steepness has the most pronounced effect on displacement, while the safety factor is most influenced by the angle of internal friction. An increase in the water level reduces stability in all considered combinations. Critical combinations of parameters corresponding to the transition of the structure to a limit state have been identified, which makes it possible to use the obtained dependencies to substantiate reconstruction and improve the reliability of bank protection during the high-water period.