Abstract
This study analyzes seasonality in bovine milk production using time series data collected between 2019 and 2023 at a production unit in Luis Moya, Zacatecas, Mexico. A longitudinal and retrospective quantitative approach was used, using monthly records of milk production per pen of milking cows. The objective was to identify seasonal patterns that allow for improved production planning and decision-making in dairy systems in semi-arid Mexico. A classic time series decomposition analysis was applied, complemented with statistical tests to evaluate trends and seasonality. The results show a clear seasonal influence, with production peaks in the cool months (November to February) and marked decreases during the warm months (April to June). These fluctuations are related to climatic and physiological factors, such as heat stress, forage availability, and reproductive efficiency. The identification of these patterns allows for the suggestion of adaptive strategies, such as adjustments in nutritional, reproductive, and health management, to mitigate the impact of seasonality. It is concluded that time series analysis is a useful tool for improving sustainability and profitability in family dairy systems. This work provides relevant information for producers and technicians to make informed decisions in regions with similar conditions.