Abstract
Importance: The rise in Trinidad and Tobago’s (T&T’s) public debt from 61.9% of GDP in 2019 to 75.6% by 2024 highlights a fiscal vulnerability facing the country. Like many other Caribbean small open economies, it is highly susceptible to external shocks, that can rapidly escalate debt-to-GDP ratios, threatening long-term economic stability. Research Gap: While the IMF provides debt sustainability frameworks, their implementation requires advances mathematical skills and extensive data often unavailable in developing countries. Existing literature identifies vulnerability under current policies but offers limited actionable guidance on the specific fiscal adjustment required to achieve sustainability targets, creating an operational gap between diagnosis and practical planning. Objective: This study proposes and designs a computational framework for a PWA to derive the fiscal surplus required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to a sustainable level of 60% of GDP in 10 years. Methodology: The methodology forecasts 10-year GDP using Manifold-Constrained Hyper-Connections (mHC), computes target debt at 60% of GDP, calculates the difference from current debt, and amortizes this excess debt to determine required annual fiscal surplus. Key findings: Achieving the 60% target by 2034 requires reducing debt by US$2,072.57 million, necessitating a steady annual fiscal surplus of US$268.41 million at a 5% discount rate. Implications: This study contributes the first empirical mHC application for macroeconomic forecasting, a pragmatic debt sustainability framework operationalized with minimal data, and an accessible tool that integrates technical fiscal analysis for resource-constrained policymakers in developing economies.