Abstract
Background: As the post-Cold-War unipolar moment gives way to a fluid multipolar order, middle-income states are recalibrating their alignments to preserve autonomy and optimise developmental gains. Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country and its largest economy, illustrates both the promise and peril of this grand-strategic recalibration. Objective: This paper interrogates Nigeria’s contemporary foreign-policy repertoire by examining the shift from Pan-African non-alignment to today’s overlapping partnerships with Western alliances and rising Asian powers. Methods: The study applies realist, liberal-institutionalist, and constructivist lenses, employing a mixed-methods design that combines secondary literature with recent datasets on trade, investment, and arms transfers (2021–2025). Elite interviews conducted in Abuja between February and April 2025 provide additional qualitative insight. Results: Findings indicate that diversified alignments expand Nigeria’s bargaining leverage and broaden developmental options. However, persistent domestic fragility, regional insecurity, and governance weaknesses undermine its capacity to transform external partnerships into durable national power. Conclusion: Nigeria’s strategy of multipolar balancing yields tactical benefits but risks entanglement and dependency without corresponding institutional reform and economic resilience. Key Contribution to Knowledge: The paper extends debates on middle-power strategies by showing how Nigeria blends realist, liberal, and constructivist logics to navigate intensifying great-power rivalry in the global South. Recommendations: To enhance strategic coherence, Nigeria should institutionalise foreign-policy planning, deepen industrial value chains, strengthen debt transparency, and anchor regional coalition-building within ECOWAS and the African Union.