Unraveling Environmental Drivers of Insect Pest Dynamics Across Multiple Landscapes

Abstract The persistence of pest populations during crop off-seasons is a major challenge for integrated pest management, yet the ecological processes underlying survival and re-infestation often remain unclear. We investigated the oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis , a major mango pest, through a two-year demographic monitoring across 56 orchards in the two main mango production basins in Senegal: the Sahelian Niayes and the tropical Casamance. Using a framework combining mechanistic and machine learning models, we identified the main environmental drivers of two key demographic parameters: the local abundance during the mango off-season and the onset of population growth in orchards. In the Niayes, harsh dry-season conditions confined residual populations to micro-habitats providing humidity and shade, while alternative hosts such as citrus trees could act as catalysts for early outbreaks. In contrast, under tropical conditions in the Casamance basin, B. dorsalis populations were more abundant year-round, and higher off-season densities appear to delay outbreak onset, likely due to density-dependent processes such as competition and predation. These findings show that distinct ecological processes shape B. dorsalis off-season persistence across environments, thereby determining population carry-over and growth onset, and ultimately leading to contrasting population dynamics across environments. They support region-specific management strategies to effectively reduce pest pressure: targeting refuges and early host resources in the Niayes, and enhancing natural regulation in Casamance.