Mapping potential for human encounters with dangerous large mammals across a community-led Wildlife Management Area in southern Tanzania based on overlapping signs of recent activity

This study examined the spatial distribution of potential human encounters with dangerous large mammals in and adjacent to the Ifakara-Lupiro-Mang'ula Wildlife Management Area (ILUMA WMA) and Nyerere National Park (NNP) in southern Tanzania. Using published survey data collected over one year, this secondary analysis focused on four potentially dangerous large mammals: elephant (Loxodonta africana), buffalo (Syncerus caffer), hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius) and hyena (Crocuta crocuta). Potential encounter risk was estimated using overlap indices based on co-occurrence of signs of wildlife and human activities. Potential encounter risk was found to be concentrated around readily identifiable foci within the study area and differed between species and distinguishable human livelihood activities. Potential for encountering the two most apparently important dangerous animals, elephant and buffalo, was closely associated with authorized fishing camps within the ILUMA WMA and the ecotone between substantially disturbed and largely intact natural land cover. The greatest potential for encountering hippopotamus occurred largely around two river beds, while hyena encounter potential was more closely associated with established villages and converted lands close to the western boundary of the ILUMA WMA. These new maps of hazard and risk suggest that effective human-wildlife conflict (HWC) mitigation in this WMA is unlikely to arise from any stand-alone intervention, but from targeted actions that reduce spatiotemporal overlap between people and wildlife by keeping them apart and/or protecting them against each other. Overall, this study demonstrates that mapping potential encounter risk based on spatiotemporal overlap of indirect activity indicators like tracks, spoor and signs provides a proactive and statistically powerful way to identify where hazardous encounters are most likely to occur, offering considerable advantages over retrospective assessments of much sparser observations of actual realised conflict events after they have already occurred. This new spatial risk mapping approach provides a framework for shifting management from reactive responses after conflict occurs towards proactive prevention.