Abstract
Armenia’s recorded exports of information and communication technology (ICT) services increased sharply alongside the relocation of Russian workers and firms in 2022. This paper examines whether the higher export level persisted after the exceptional net inflow ended and how Armenia’s experience compares with other service exports and regional destinations of relocation. The study uses descriptive analysis of annual and quarterly Central Bank of Armenia balance-of-payments data, supplemented by migration and company-registration statistics. World Bank data provide a common basis for comparison with Georgia and Kazakhstan.
Recorded ICT service exports rose from US$382 million in 2021 to US$1.775 billion in 2025. Although growth stalled around late 2024, exports remained substantially above their pre-2022 level into early 2026. The expansion was also regional: between 2019 and 2025, World Bank figures show increases of 5.7 times in Armenia, 11.4 times in Georgia, and 10.3 times in Kazakhstan, although Armenia retained higher exports per capita.
These findings establish persistence and a shared regional pattern, but do not identify the causes of growth or demonstrate gains in domestic productive capacity. Aggregate export statistics cannot distinguish local capability development from continued billing through resident firms whose activities may extend abroad. The paper therefore proposes a policy framework prioritizing skills, education, and infrastructure investments whose benefits are less dependent on which explanation dominates.