Spatial assessment of blue-green tourism potential and sustainable development priorities in the Central Aran economic region of Azerbaijan

Blue-green tourism provides prospects to merge water-based recreation opportunities, natural landscapes and sustainable regional development in places with not yet fully exploited tourism potential. Using GIS-based spatial suitability approach, this study evaluates the potential of blue-green tourism in the Central Aran economic region of Azerbaijan. The administrative boundaries, together with water features (OpenStreetMap) and land-cover data (ESA WorldCover 2021) were harmonised in a common projected coordinate system and processed using QGIS. In total, two main spatial indicators were created: water proximity suitability and green and natural land-cover suitability. Water proximity was assigned five suitability scores based on the distance to rivers, reservoirs and other water bodies and land-cover classes were reclassified using a tourism suitability scale of 5, based on the relative recreational and ecological value of tree cover, shrubland, grassland, cropland, built-up areas, sparse vegetation and wetlands. The results show a clear spatial clustering of high water-related suitability values along the Mingachevir Reservoir and along the Kura River corridor, and further local suitability values in proximity to secondary water features. Land-cover suitability exhibits a more geographically diverse pattern related to the agricultural, semi-natural and urbanised nature of the area. Overall, these spatial patterns suggest that there is a great potential for blue-green tourism development in Mingachevir, Yevlakh and Kura River corridor, while other districts need to be planned more carefully regarding landscape, infrastructure and recreational aspects. The results offer a territorial basis for prioritizing actions and investments for sustainable tourism in the region.