Abstract
The study critically assessed the bio-economic dependence of EU member nations on natural indicators such as ecological footprints, bio-capacity, ecological reserve and carbon footprints by employing a panel ARDL estimation technique over a given period of (2019-2023). The study further employed the marginal effect technique to investigate the rate of changes in bio-economy in the EU member nations given periodic ecological footprints and certain levels of carbon footprints. The study sourced data from the Global Footprint Network (GFN), EU National Footprint Accounts (NFA) and EU commission monitoring Agro-food trade development for a given range of (2019-2023) for the selected variables of interest. Based on empirical evidence, findings from this study suggest a long run relationship (cointegration) among the estimated variables. The long-run estimates suggests that the interaction of ecological and carbon footprints has a reducing effect on bio-economy while bio-capacity improves it for the EU member nations. Also, the values obtained from the NFA shows an ecological deficit in the EU member nations which is consistent with the statistical findings that reveals a reducing effect of ecological deficit on bio-economy. The study recommends for bio-economic governance reflecting effective bio economic policies towards the preservation and optimal utilization of ecological resources of croplands, grazing land, forestry, marine, built-up land and forest land for the absorption of carbon footprints due to socio-economic activities among the EU member nations for smooth transition to bio-economy. Also, there is an urgent need to establish strict biocapacity thresholds and Footprint Accounting Metrics (FAM) that ensure the EU Bioeconomy operates within absolute ecological limits, prioritizing resource efficiency, cascading biomass use and absolute consumption reduction.