Forest-based NBS in disaster-prone landscapes: evidence from the 2022 Swat floods, Pakistan

Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) are increasingly recognised as powerful measures to address climate-induced disasters, ecological degradation, and sustainable development challenges. Despite the widespread promotion of NBS, there is a lack of empirical studies how NBS governance processes function in practice in the disaster-prone contexts in the Global South. Using Swat Valley in Pakistan as a case study, the present paper examines how policy fragmentation and socio-environmental vulnerabilities contributed to the devastating impacts of floods in 2022. The methods include 50 semi-structured interviews, a questionnaire with 150 responses, and analysis of eight policy documents to map stakeholder perceptions, policy failures, and governance bottlenecks. Findings reveal that existing afforestation initiatives lack ecological fit (species-site mismatch, neglected riparian buffers), and have thin local ownership and absent feedback mechanisms. Consequently, the intensity and frequency of floods have increased, and the resilience to floods is limited despite considerable tree planting efforts. Synthesising these findings reveals a systemic governance gap characterised by weak role clarity, poor ecological alignment, limited ownership, and absent adaptive feedback. Interpreting through an adaptive governance lens, these findings illustrate that ecological restoration targets are not the only measure of the effectiveness of forest-based NBS, but the capacity of governance arrangements to integrate institutional coordination, ecological knowledge, community participation, and continuous learning are equally important. This study shows that restoration outcomes in disaster-prone contexts are undermined by the divergences between policy commitment and implementation measures. We conclude that forest-based NBS in Pakistan can be strengthened by shifting from top-down and target-oriented programs towards participatory, context-sensitive, and adaptive governance approaches that enhance ecological restoration and disaster resilience over time.