Anticipatory resilience in complex systems: a Luhmannian-cybernetic framework for critical infrastructure

Purpose This article reconceptualises anticipatory resilience (AR) in complex sociotechnical organisational environment, notably critical infrastructure (CI) organisations by integrating Luhmann’s social systems theory and cybernetic principles. It addresses the limitations of control-oriented AR frameworks by proposing a communicative understanding centred on programmes, decision premises and second-order observation. Design/methodology/approach The article introduces a framework positioning organisations as autopoietic decision systems that maintain resilience through recursive communication and adaptive programmatic coordination. AR is operationalised via organisational programmes, structural couplings, distributed variety and reflexive observation, illustrated through an emergency medical services (EMS) worked example facing cyber and hybrid threats. Findings The study finds that AR emerges not from predictive accuracy or centralised control but from an organisation’s capacity to recursively stabilise and revise future-oriented expectations under uncertainty. Programmes operate as executable communication architectures that organise attention, operationalise inclusion/exclusion and coordinate heterogeneous digital and analogue environments. Originality/value The article reframes anticipation as a communicative accomplishment grounded in organisational decision-making rather than forecasting. It advances debates on digital governance by conceptualising programmes as sociotechnical architectures shaping operational relevance, communicative inclusion and adaptive governance within programmable CI organisations.